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The Political Intelligence Group (PIG), the analytical arm of Politico.ng<\/a>, has projected that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win 20 states in the 2027<\/a> presidential election, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states and Peter Obi eight states.<\/p>\n The projection was reaffirmed by the Publisher of Politico.ng<\/a>, Mr. Lai Omotola, at a press conference held at the organisation\u2019s office in Maryland, Lagos. He said PIG\u2019s analysis showed that Tinubu would likely record a stronger performance in the South, while also making a fairly strong showing in the North-West and North-East. Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states, while Peter Obi is expected to secure eight states. The group projected that Obi would win the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), despite the political influence of the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike. \u201cThis projection doesn’t suggest a winning or INEC declaration, but what we have painstakingly observed through various factors. We have predicted elections in the past, which we got correctly at 90 percent,\u201d Omotola said.<\/p>\n He described pre-election analysis as a difficult exercise but said it could help political parties and candidates identify their strengths and weaknesses ahead of the election. \u201cAny political party or candidate that doubts our prediction does so at their peril,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Omotola said the figures represented a \u201cmock result\u201d based on current political realities and the assumption that all things remained equal. \u201cThe Political Intelligence Group is known for objective analysis, and we can in all honesty say President Tinubu will win in 20 states of the federation, while Atiku Abubakar will have nine states and Peter Obi will win eight states,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n On Rivers State, Omotola said the contest was too close to call, while arguing that Wike\u2019s political influence could play a major role in determining the outcome in the state and the FCT. \u201cRivers State is too close to call. For APC to have Rivers State, Wike should talk less, or else both Rivers and FCT might not come his way despite his boasting,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Omotola identified three major factors he believed would shape the 2027<\/a> presidential election: the principle of political rotation, the Northern agenda and voters who are not aligned with either position. \u201cThe 2027<\/a> will be determined on a tripod of rotational factor, the Northern agenda and those who are not aligned to the above two,\u201d he said. He added that the eventual outcome of the election would have consequences for Nigeria\u2019s political landscape and could shape the narratives and direction of national politics beyond 2027<\/a>.<\/p>\n Omotola further argued that the APC currently enjoys significant advantages ahead of the election, citing incumbency, federal influence and campaign resources. \u201cThe 2027<\/a> Presidential Election is an All Progressives Congress election to win as things stand, no matter the situation or happenings in the country,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n He described the APC\u2019s \u201cfederal might and war chest\u201d as major factors in the electioneering process, while also arguing that the opposition lacks a political figure with the electoral strength and political machinery that Tinubu brought to the APC in the 2015<\/a> election. He also ruled out the possibility of the opposition parties successfully coming together at this stage of the political cycle. \u201cThere is no way the opposition could come together at this time,\u201d Omotola said.<\/p>\n
\nOmotola said the projection was based on the group\u2019s assessment of prevailing political factors and should not be regarded as an official election result or a prediction of what the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would declare.<\/p>\n
\nAccording to the projection, the APC is expected to win in Lagos and\u00a0 Imo State, while also defeating the political influence of former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to win Kano State.<\/p>\n
\nHe said the rotational principle could favour Tinubu, while the Northern agenda could strengthen Atiku\u2019s chances and voters outside the two blocs could favour Obi.<\/p>\n
\nAccording to him, the absence of such a \u201ctalisman\u201d remains a major disadvantage for the opposition.<\/p>\n